Science & Technology Studies Priority Group
Seminar
“Did ‘Predict and
Provide’ Ever Die? UK Transport, Carbon Emissions and the Growth Paradigm”
Dr Murray Goulden
Horizon Research
Institute
University of
Nottingham
1 - 2pm, Thursday 23rd
February 2012
Room A100, West Wing
Law & Social Sciences Building
Abstract
Thirty years ago, Adams (1981) invoked a future UK
where everyone was a millionaire lorry driver, simply by extrapolating from
official transport growth assumptions of the time. These assumptions
underpinned the ‘predict and provide’ model which then characterised transport
planning. Twenty years later, the New Deal for Transport White Paper
(1998) abandoned ‘predict and provide’ as unsustainable, and today, the future
of non-aviation transport is to be carbon-neutral by 2050. This paper argues
that the same growth assumptions that Adams took to their logical (absurd)
conclusion continue to underpin both transport and the drivers of transport
demand, and that the targeted reductions in emissions rely on a strong decoupling
of transport demand and its drivers for which there is no evidence. Targets
rely on optimistic technology forecasts; behaviour change assumptions which
appear unlikely in the present political climate; the negation of rebound
effects; and externalising major sources of emissions, all of which we
challenge. It is suggested that this transport example offers a sobering lesson
for carbon targets in other sectors of the economy, and demonstrates the need
to consider transport in its widest socio-environmental context.
ALL WELCOME; queries: gregory.hollin@nottingham.ac.uk